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May WASDE Report Numbers

Submitted on Tuesday, May 10, 2016

USDA provided fuel to the fire of soybean bulls while confirming the dismay held by those watching corn and wheat prices. The biggest move was seen in US soybean ending stocks. Record projections on soybean crush and exports take the 2016/17 projected ending stocks to 305 million bushels. This was near the bottom of the range of estimates and 100 million bushels below the average guess. On this adjustment, world ending stocks are left at 68 MMT, slightly less than the  2013/14 marketing year.  Domestically, this is still the second largest ending stocks and stocks-to-use figure since 2006/07.


Corn carries a weightier story. Ending stocks for 2015/16 were 1.803, only slightly less than the average guess. This came on the heels of an increase in export numbers. With a projected record export number for the 2016/17 marketing year, ending stocks were still 2.153 billion. This was by no means a bullish number, but was certainly lighter than the average guess which was 141 million bushels larger.  This leaves world numbers just as large as last year. Consequently, the world has plenty of feed, especially when including the massive wheat stocks.








Report numbers are listed below.


 






This is where things get interesting. With large price movements and offsetting basis growth, markets are giving mixed signals. Buyers of futures contracts are in full stride, while buyers of soybeans are holding back. Opportunities such as these are times to make cash sales and roll up puts on unsold bushels. As you continue down this road and move into an area where more than 1/2 of your grain is sold, call options become a great compliment to carry you through what could be some interesting summer markets. Give us a call to sort through your individual scenario. 608-960-4771