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3/2/2016 - A Glimmer Of Hope?

In a market that has been absolutely absent of good news in recent months, today's Global Dairy Trade (GDT) trade at the surface presented something to smile about.  The index of products traded today was up 1.4% relative to the last event.  However, before we begin to mark this as the day that the world has fundamentally changed, I think it is important to dig a little deeper to see both what was responsible for the move and what the move actually represents. First, when...

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3/1/2016 - USDA Ag Outlook & ARC Projections

The market has been generally lacking any new fundamental data since the January release of the WASDE report.  Since then, markets have largely been at the mercy of broader, macro economic data and technical chart and market elements.  Last week, the USDA held their annual Ag Outlook Forum which helps to develop the baseline in their projections looking forward 10 years.  Since this forum is held annually, they are able to evaluate projections of prior years relative to how...

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2/23/2016 - Big Supply, Small Price

Taking a big picture view of news releases and events in recent weeks continues to confirm two basic observations:  Supply of Milk and Product is heavy Prices remain weak While this may be very basic economics to the casual observer, it is a very hard reality for those who call themselves dairy producers.  USDA released, today, their first Cold Storage report for the year.  Ultimately, butter supplies were 26% greater than December and 32% larger than last...

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2/22/2016 - Could Milk Prices Rebound in 2016?

As dairy producers know better than anyone, milk prices in the U.S. continue to feel downward pressure. What’s causing it? Analysts say global supplies are to blame, helping to push prices lower. “As we look at the stage that’s being set for the year ahead, we have a lot of stocks to chew through,” said Mike North of Commodity Risk Management Group on AgDay.   --- Read more here ---

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2/22/2016 - Backed Into A Corner

If you are a lover of action movies, you have witnessed the scene.  A chase leaves the pursuee (as defined by Buford T. Justice) backed into a corner by the pursuer.  The audience knows what happens next...the great escape.  Which way do they go?  The unknown elements are what keeps the crowds attention and makes for a great chase sequence.  This same chase is alive and well in the grain markets. Since Mid-December, corn, soybeans, and wheat have been moving...

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