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Market Moment

Grains results for All Months from All Years

The US Dollar...Providing New Opportunity for Grain Markets?

Published on Monday, April 24, 2017

Since election night last November, the US Dollar (USD) has maintained a stronger posture that for the most part has kept values north of 100 on the Index...until recently.  See Chart.  Since making its peak at the beginning of the year, the greenback has worked diligently to stay above par. Three times it was violated.  Twice it returned to levels above 100. The exhaustion of late ...

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Fund Position...Still Very Short

Published on Tuesday, April 18, 2017

As we work into the spring planting rush, much discussion has been building about the wet conditions in the upper Midwest and potential planting delays. However, traders are often slow to add premium to April delays as we need to linger well into May before any major impact on yield is often realized. See Plant Date vs. Yield Chart. The old adage of "a bushel a day after the 10th of May", sti...

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World Grain Supplies Set the Tone

Published on Tuesday, April 11, 2017

The USDA released its monthly WASDE report this morning.  Stronger markets prior to its release were met with softer markets afterwards.  Rather than explaining the USDA's numbers, we would rather let an excerpt of the report do the talking: COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for increased corn used to produce ethanol, reduced feed and residual use and unchanged en...

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Acreage Estimates.. Now What?

Published on Monday, April 3, 2017

In the wake of Friday's report, prices are following the path that most would consider as obvious.  With 90 million acres of corn in production (4 million acres fewer than 2016), a trend line yield of 170.7 and 9% abandonment leaves us with an estimated crop of 13.98 Billion bushels. That is 640 million less than last year.  So for the moment, everyone has developed a bullish o...

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USDA Releases Prospective Plantings & Grain Stocks Reports

Published on Friday, March 31, 2017

The USDA released their Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions report today.  The results were as follows: Corn: Plantings of 90 Million Acres vs. the average analyst pre-report estimate of 91 Million and 4 million less than 2016 Stocks of 8.62 Billion vs. the average analyst pre-report estimate of 8.534 Billion, a 10% increase from March 2016 Soybeans: Plantings of ...

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